Donald Trump and Russian Roulette

Chris Brown, CIO, 2nd September 2016 Our favourite way at looking at the US election is via poll of poll data compiled by people like Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com. At its recent highs, he estimated the probability of Hilary Clinton winning in November at 83% (see Chart 1 below). One way of looking at this

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Hindsight Is A Wonderful Thing….

Sometimes it would be helpful in this business to have a Delorean style time machine. Occasionally, though, it would do no good at all. If we had been able to magic forward to lunchtime on June 24th and see the result of the referendum vote and the impact it had on markets we would have

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The Morning After

The polls were right. In the end, what they predicted to be a tight 50/50 decision went the way of the Leave campaign. Financial and betting markets had expected that when people came to put pen to paper a preference for the status quo and the health of the economy would mean Remain would carry

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What are the alternatives?

Is it the case that, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, that equities are the worst investment around apart from all the alternatives? We don’t think so for two reasons. First, there are still parts of the world where the scenarios for equity investing look fairly attractive and you can reasonably expect to make the 7%-9% or

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Brexit: What we do and don’t worry about

We have had several conversations with clients on what are the risks and the implications for our portfolios of Britain leaving the EU (a “Brexit” in the common media parlance which we will sadly follow for the rest of this note). This note summarises our view, why we think our portfolios are robust (even if

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How unusual are today’s markets?

Well, the year has certainly got off to a bang. And, unfortunately it’s the bad sort of bang. The US equity market (S&P 500) has fallen -10.5% peak to trough from its December high and the European equity market (Euro Stoxx 600) has fallen over -16%. We think the fact that this happened at the

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